G'day, and welcome to the first-ever edition of Six Again. If you're reading this, you've either been forwarded it by a mate or you took a punt on an unknown newsletter — either way, cheers.
Let's get into it. Foran's undefeated, the Broncos are leaking bodies, there's a debutant halfback in one of the biggest games of the year, and Nanai's finally back. Big round
🔥 SIX AGAIN — THE HOT TAKE
The Broncos Have A Forward Depth Problem That Could Cost Them The Season
Let's count them. Payne Haas — MCL tear, long-term. Pat Carrigan — one week left of suspension. Corey Jensen — blood clot diagnosis, indefinite. Reece Walsh — cheekbone fracture, facial surgery, cloudy return timeline. Ben Hunt — grade three MCL, 6–8 weeks. Josh Reynolds — grade two adductor. That's half a spine and most of your front-row rotation gone in the space of a fortnight.
Even if Walsh comes back ahead of schedule, you have to ask — how does the Broncos backline get the ball in good field position? Reynolds, Arthars, Mam, Staggs — that's serious firepower, but without Haas and Carrigan laying the platform, they're launching attacks from 30 metres out on their own line. You can't score from there no matter how good your outside backs are.
The next 2.5 months will decide Brisbane's season. And they're also a preview of 2027 — with Haas off to South Sydney, the Broncos are about to lean heavily on young blokes like Xavier Willison and Va'a Semu. This stretch is either where those kids announce themselves, or where the Broncos' finals hopes quietly disappear.
Madge Maguire has a brilliant backline and a pack that's being held together by rookies and blokes who were Queensland Cup options a month ago. You can't win NRL games without field position. The next ten weeks will tell us not just about 2026 — but what the Broncos actually look like without Payne Haas from next year onwards. It's a scary look, and Red Hill knows it.
🏥 THE INJURY REPORT
Who's In, Who's Out, Who's A Worry
BRONCOS — THE CASUALTY WARD
Payne Haas — MCL tear. Long-term. The one that hurts most. (OUT)
Corey Jensen — blood clot diagnosis. Indefinite. All the best, Corey. (OUT)
Reece Walsh — surgery for fractured cheekbone. 4–6 weeks. (OUT)
Ben Hunt — grade three MCL. 6–8 weeks. (OUT)
Josh Reynolds — grade two adductor. Two-week window. (OUT)
Pat Carrigan — one more week of suspension. Back Round 9. (SUSP)
Jesse Arthars & Kotoni Staggs — both cleared to play through knocks. (IN)
COWBOYS — REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE
Jeremiah Nanai — back after off-season shoulder reconstruction. Huge. (IN)
Murray Taulagi & Reed Mahoney — both through HIA protocols and back in the starting side. (IN)
SHARKS
Cam McInnes — first game since Round 24 last year following ACL reco. Off the bench. Genuine feel-good story. (IN)
KNIGHTS
Kalyn Ponga & Bradman Best — still no clear timeline. Newcastle limping. (OUT)
RAIDERS
Simi Sasagi — hamstring strain, ruled out this week. (OUT)
Hudson Young — two-match suspension. (SUSP)
DRAGONS
Jaydn Su'A — three-match ban for the high shot on Cameron Murray. (SUSP)
Kade Reed — NRL debut at halfback. One to watch. (IN)
🎲 THE PUNT
Dragons +16.5 v Roosters Is The Line Worth A Look
Dragons v Roosters · ANZAC Day · Allianz Stadium. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. The bookies have it at +16.5 and the narrative says the Dragons are in chaos after sacking Shane Flanagan and handing an NRL debut to a 20-year-old halfback. But dig into it.
The Dragons, even through their dreadful 2025 run, were losing games in the 1–12 range consistently. Their defence wasn't the problem — their attack was. And the Roosters haven't been the juggernaut people are giving them credit for either. Last week they conceded 24 points to a depleted Knights side missing Ponga and Best. That's not a team you spot 16+ against anyone right now.
Then there's Kade Reed. The 20-year-old has been a standout through the NSW Cup and showed real X-factor in the pre-season trials. He's a runner, he's got ticker, and he's walking into a Dragons spine where everyone around him defends hard — Sloan, Cook, Atkinson, Stewart. The Roosters backline isn't exactly facing creative geniuses, but Reed could be the one x-factor that keeps this within the line.
16.5 is a lot of points. A lot.
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🐊 THE QLD LENS
Kieran Foran Is 3 From 3 And Walking Into A Depleted Parramatta
Kieran Foran took the Manly job with zero head coaching experience — at any level. Four-and-a-half months after retiring as a player. He's now undefeated in three games, including putting 52 on the Dolphins in his debut. Quietly, the Sea Eagles have become one of the most dangerous teams in the comp.
This Sunday he faces a Parramatta side still missing key players and fighting for any kind of momentum, at a sold-out 4 Pines Park. Manly have broken 20,100 members for the first time. Brookvale under lights with a coach this hot, against an Eels outfit that genuinely can't string wins together — this should be a procession.
It's also a reminder of how quickly the mood shifts in rugby league. Three weeks ago Manly were 0-3 and looked cooked. Now Foran is the front-runner for the full-time job and the Sea Eagles are the form side outside the top four. The comp doesn't wait.
📈 STAT THAT MATTERS
0–20
The Rabbitohs' Record Against The Storm In Melbourne
South Sydney has not won a single game at AAMI Park against the Storm. Zero from twenty. Melbourne are somehow coming off five straight losses and everyone's trying to work out what's wrong with Bellamy's side — but this is still the ground where they've owned South Sydney for a decade.
If you're tipping this weekend, history says Melbourne's slump ends right here. ANZAC Round, home ground, and their favourite opponent. Sometimes the streak is the story.
🗓️ PUB VERDICTS — ROUND 8 TIPS
How I'm Tipping This Week
Tigers v Raiders | RAIDERS |
|---|---|
Cowboys v Sharks | COWBOYS |
Broncos v Bulldogs | BULLDOGS |
Dragons v Roosters | ROOSTERS |
Warriors v Dolphins | WARRIORS |
Storm v Rabbitohs | STORM |
Knights v Panthers | PENRITH |
Eels v Sea Eagles | MANLY |
Dragons v Roosters is the one I'm eyeing for the punt — see above. Cowboys get Nanai, Taulagi and Mahoney all back in the one week, which is the kind of reinforcement you don't ignore. And Manly with Foran look too good to pass up against a depleted Eels side.
SIGN-OFF
That's Edition #01. Reckon I'm wrong on Brisbane? Think the Dragons can't cover +16.5? Hit reply — it comes straight to me.
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Back in your inbox next Wednesday. Enjoy the ANZAC Round.
Cheers, Thomas Wilson Six Again