INTRO

G'day, and welcome back to Six Again. Hope you survived the long weekend — we've got plenty to unpack. The Bunnies smashed a 20-game hoodoo, the Storm hit a six-loss streak that equals the longest in their history, the Dragons hit a historic low at Allianz, and Reece Walsh is back at fullback two weeks ahead of schedule.

If this is the first edition you're reading, welcome aboard. If you got forwarded this — stick around, we go again every Wednesday.

🔥THE HOT TAKE

The Storm Have An Edge Defence Problem And It Starts In The Back Row

Six losses in a row. Equals the longest streak in club history. And while everyone's talking about Bellamy and the spine combinations — the actual problem is much simpler. Melbourne's edge defence has fallen off a cliff, and their back row is the reason why.

Watch any of the last six games back. Souths put on 48 because they kept finding space outside Joe Chan. The Roosters could've put on 50 the week before for the same reason. Opposition halves are looking at the Storm's right and left edges and seeing soft shoulder defence, slow line speed, and forwards who can't cover their centres when the ball goes wide. That's not a Bellamy problem. That's a personnel problem.

Then there's Trent Loiero. The Maroons lock has been making mistakes that just shouldn't be in his game — dropped balls, missed reads, ill-disciplined penalties. He's a Queensland Origin lock and he's playing like he's lost confidence. If he doesn't pick up form fast, Billy Slater has a real selection question on his hands.

Bellamy has finally rolled the dice for Round 9 — Shawn Blore and Alec MacDonald in the starting pack, Ativalu Lisati back from a calf injury. Lisati is the one to watch. He's quick, he reads play, and he's the kind of edge back-rower the Storm have been missing all year. If anyone's going to plug the hole on the edges, it's him.

The Storm dynasty has been built on the assumption that Bellamy will always find an answer. The truth is the comp has worked out their edges and the back row hasn't kept up. Lisati might be the answer. Loiero needs a wake-up call. And until both happen, opposition halves will keep finding space wide every single set.

🏥THE INJURY REPORT

Who's Back, Who's Out, Who's One To Watch

BRONCOS — RELIEF ARRIVES

  • Reece Walsh — back early from facial fracture and foot laceration. Fullback, Round 9. Massive. (IN)

  • Pat Carrigan — suspension served, returns at lock. (IN)

  • Brendan Piakura — injury, ruled out. Willison shifts to edge. (OUT)

  • Preston Riki — suspended, Aublix Tawha replaces on bench. (SUSP)

  • Payne Haas — MCL, still long-term. (OUT)

  • Corey Jensen — blood clot, indefinite. (OUT)

  • Ben Hunt — grade 3 MCL, 6–8 weeks. (OUT)

STORM — BELLAMY MAKES CHANGES

  • Jahrome Hughes — concussion, ruled out. Tyran Wishart at halfback. (OUT)

  • Hugo Peel — 20-year-old, NRL debut on the wing. (IN)

  • Ativalu Lisati — back from calf injury, into the starting pack. One to watch. (IN)

WARRIORS

  • Luke Metcalf — returns from hamstring, named on bench. (IN)

  • Mitch Barnett — concussion, out for Round 9. (OUT)

  • Ali Leiataua — concussion, out. Adam Pompey replaces. (OUT)

COWBOYS

  • Murray Taulagi — concussion. Zac Laybutt back on the wing. (OUT)

  • Jeremiah Nanai — backed up after Round 8 return, named to start. (IN)

KNIGHTS — REINFORCEMENTS

  • Kalyn Ponga — back from hamstring. Huge for Newcastle. (IN)

  • Bradman Best — back from groin. (IN)

  • Greg Marzhew — back from concussion. (IN)

TIGERS — LOSSES

  • Apisai Koroisau — facing lengthy stand-down from judiciary after hip-drop tackle on Pearce-Paul. Tristan Hope at hooker. (SUSP)

  • Kai Pearce-Paul — failed HIA, in concussion protocols. Tony Sukkar replaces. (OUT)

  • Jahream Bula — shoulder concern, Sunia Turuva to fullback. (OUT)

RAIDERS

  • Simi Sasagi — back from hamstring strain. (IN)

  • Zac Hosking — concussion, out. (OUT)

  • Noah Martin — surgery on both ankles. Long-term. (OUT)

BULLDOGS — HUGE LOSS

  • Viliame Kikau — pectoral injury. Sitili Tupouniua replaces. (OUT)

  • Harry Hayes — suspension. (SUSP)

SEA EAGLES

  • Corey Waddell — pectoral injury, Nathan Brown recalled. (OUT)

DOLPHINS

  • Jake Averillo — hand injury, Trai Fuller into the centres. (OUT)

  • Morgan Knowles — back from calf injury at lock. (IN)

Callout box:

⚠️ This week's wild card: Hugo Peel debuting for the Storm on the wing in their must-win game against the Dolphins. Bellamy doesn't usually throw kids into the deep end — the fact he's doing it now tells you everything about where they are.

🎲 THE PUNT

Knights v Rabbitohs Is The Match To Watch This Round

Knights v Rabbitohs · Sunday · McDonald Jones Stadium.

This one is fascinating. Newcastle get Ponga, Best AND Marzhew all back in the same week — that's basically a different team to the one that conceded 44 to Penrith last weekend. South Sydney are coming off the most emphatic win of their season, putting 48 on the Storm and breaking a two-decade hoodoo at AAMI Park. Both teams arrive with very different momentum.

Here's what makes it interesting. The Knights at home with their full spine back, against a Souths side that just hit their absolute ceiling on ANZAC Day. South Sydney are favourites and the line reflects it — but the Knights have lost just one of their last six at McDonald Jones with Ponga in the side. The home ground stats are uglier than the team form suggests. With Ponga back, that flips fast.

The big question is whether Souths can back up that ANZAC Day performance against a side that's been waiting four weeks to get their best players back on the field at the same time. Hot tip: they probably can't, not at full intensity. The Knights look like real value here.

Callout box:

Think about your choices. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858 — free, confidential, 24/7.

🐊 THE QLD LENS

Walsh, Carrigan And The Broncos' Make-Or-Break Fortnight

Two weeks ago I wrote that the Broncos were in genuine strife. Now they get Reece Walsh back two weeks early from his cheekbone fracture and Pat Carrigan returning from suspension in the same round. Just like that, the Broncos look like a footy team again.

Walsh is the difference. He's the most damaging fullback in the comp when he's right — he turns ordinary field position into tries, and he gives the Broncos backline what they were missing for two rounds. With him at the back, suddenly Reynolds, Mam and Staggs have ammunition. That's a top-eight team again.

But the catch is real. Brisbane still don't have Haas, Hunt, or Jensen. Carrigan is coming back cold off a suspension and into a tough fixture against the Roosters at Allianz. The next fortnight will tell us whether Xavier Willison and the kids can hold the middle long enough for Walsh and the spine to do damage at the other end. Get through this stretch with two wins and the Broncos are very much in the finals race. Drop both, and the season unravels just as fast.

Walsh back is huge. The pack is still the question.

📈 STAT THAT MATTERS

0-20 → 1-20

South Sydney Just Broke A Two-Decade Hoodoo Against The Storm In Melbourne

Last week's stat said Souths had never won at AAMI Park in 20 attempts against the Storm. The Bunnies read it, ignored it, and put 48 unanswered points on Melbourne to break the hoodoo in style.

Latrell Mitchell collected the Spirit of ANZAC medal with 164 metres, three line-break assists and two try assists. It was complete domination from the second minute to the eightieth. Cameron Munster looked rattled, Harry Grant was quiet, and Bellamy's side has now lost six on the trot.

Sometimes the hoodoo breaks in slow motion. Sometimes it breaks 48-6 on the biggest stage of the season. Souths just told the comp where they're heading.

🗓️ PUB VERDICTS

How I'm Tipping This Week
  • Bulldogs v Cowboys → COWBOYS

  • Dolphins v Storm → DOLPHINS

  • Titans v Raiders → TITANS

  • Eels v Warriors → WARRIORS

  • Roosters v Broncos → ROOSTERS

  • Knights v Rabbitohs → KNIGHTS

  • Sharks v Tigers → TIGERS

  • Panthers v Sea Eagles → PANTHERS

Knights v Rabbitohs is the punt of the round (see above). The Roosters v Broncos game at Allianz is the must-watch — Walsh and Carrigan back for Brisbane, but the Roosters just dropped 64 on the Dragons. Brisbane's pack is still patched together, and you can't reset that overnight.

The Storm aren't winning a game until the back-row settles. The Dolphins might just be the beneficiary on Friday night.

SIGN-OFF

That's Edition #02. Reckon Lisati saves the Storm? Think the Knights are the real deal now they're whole? Hit reply — it comes straight to me.

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Back in your inbox next Wednesday. Enjoy Round 9.

Cheers, Thomas Wilson

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